Salary Math & Trade Considerations

I don't know if Cato for Darko/Arroyo would be a good trade or not. Darko could prove to be the best player in the deal. That rarely happens for the Magic. Cato is best for giving his body and 6 fouls to Haq-a-Shaq and could come in handy to Detroit in the playoffs. So it could make sense.

Finances, however, do not allow it unless it is followed closely by a second trade that creates a significant salary reduction. Here's the logic:

Next years salary cap approximately: $50 million per team.

The Luxury Tax start at about $60 million.

Assume the Magic want to create a perennial winner with a payroll in the $40 to $50 million range and always below the luxury tax threshold.

Current Payroll:

$75 million (taxable portion is $67 million after not counting Doug Christie.) Likely tax payment is $8 million.

Next Year:

6 contracts, $47 million for Hill, Francis, Turkoglu, Howard, Dooling, & Nelson. (If Stevenson does not opt out, as is his option then Magic have 7 contracts and $50 million on the books. I assume he will opt out in search of a longer, more lucrative deal. For sake of argument, he might be worth 3 years & $4 million each like Arroyo.)

Expiring contracts: Cato $8.6, Christie $8.2, Battie $5.2, Garrity $3.2, Outlaw, Augmon, Morris, Kasun, Diener.

Assume that the Magic want to resign:

Stevenson $4 million, 3 yrs guess
Battie $5.5 million, 3 yrs guess
Diener $640K second year salary

The Magic are at 9 contracts and $57 million in salary. Add $3 million for a likely top ten draft pick, $300k for a 2nd rounder, you are at 11 contracts and $60 million.

All without improving the team much unless you can count on a rookie to come through in year one. This still leaves Orlando to find a starting Center and offensive SF/SG specialist with the $5 million exception and $3 mill veterans exception if they are willing to keep the payroll inflated and pay luxury tax. I'd say it's doubtful.

If the Cato for Darko/Arroyo trade were to come through you would have 13 contracts and $70 million on the books. In 2007 Hill comes off the books, but Darko is a restricted free agent.

It doesn't make much sense. You get a potential starting center in Darko, move Battie to backup PF/C, but wind up with a 4th point guard in Arroyo, and are still well over the luxury threshold.

This trade requires a big salary dump to work. Either Hill retiring, or Francis for an expiring contract. If either happens, the payroll drops to $55 million next year. If Francis is gone, the team payroll is under $50 million in 2007 just as Howard & Nelson are entering their 4th years.

Bottom line: together Hill & Francis are strangling the Magic's ability to make any moves. Together next year they will account for $32 million of payroll. If neither are moved you have to expect a minimum of moves to be completed and are forced to consider that next year will likely be a repeat of this years disspointment.