Orlando Magic Blog

Group Blog talking about the NBA 2009 Eastern Conference Champions. Due to the amazing success of the 2009 playoff run comments are now frequently deleted to kill offensive comments, incoherence, or asininity. Comments can no longer be anonymous and require either a Blogger or OpenID account.

Monday, July 28, 2008

2007/08 Magic League and Player Rankings

NBA Team by Position stats

from www.82games.com who are the stats geeks for the NBA.

Below is the Magic performance compared to the rest of the league by position, not player. PER is a John Hollinger stat from ESPN. 82 games ranks PER - Opposition PER.

Orlando Magic

07-08
Ranks (Net)
PER Difference
POS
Pts
FG%
Reb
Ast
T/O
FTA
PER
Opp
Rank
PG 16 7 19 12 16 14 16.7 16.8 14
SG 27 5 25 30 1 25 14.1 17.1 24
SF 8 5 14 5 28 14 17.9 15.7 7
PF 8 3 30 7 25 23 17.0 16.1 12
C 4 1 1 23 30 1 22.6 15.1 1

A lot of the data here is pretty obvious to Magic fans.

1. Dwight Howard plays over 80% of the available Center minutes for the Magic so it's no big surprise the Magic are the best in the league at the position overall, FG%, Rebounding and Free Throw Attempts. Howard can still get better, he is relatively poor at passing and very bad at turnovers. Plus there are three teams that score more out of the Center position.

2. The combination of Turk and whoever is pretty good all around.

3. Lewis & company is clearly playing out of position at PF with very poor rebounding and turnovers. Then again, how much rebounding is needed with Howard at Center? As with SF, the Magic get strong passing from the PF position, and marksman-like shooting.

4. My anti-Magic Guard bias figured the PG position was even worse than these numbers show. Plenty of room for improvement here. I still have trouble picturing the Magic winning a title with Nelson as starter. And he was much better than Arroyo and Dooling.

5. I knew the SG position was a bit on the bad side, but these stats say they were awful last year. SG was mostly Evans, Bogans & some Dooling. Pietrus and Lee are in a position to really help the Magic out in 2008/09. They would really have to suck to maintain last years production.

Here is a look at the entire roster as sorted by Roland Rating which is:

This rating isn't an absolute measure of a player's ability, but it does represent how successful a player is with a given team. In general the player with the best Roland Rating on a team is the difference maker (exclude the guys who play a statistically insignificant number of minutes). When the top guy is on the floor the team performs at a much higher level.

These ratings represent a player's value to a particular team and are not intended to be an accurate gauge of the ability and talent of the player away from the specific team.

Explanation: The on court +/- number repesents the team's net points with the player on the floor per 48 minutes, while the off court number is the team's net with the player off the floor per 48 minutes. The Roland Rating is the difference between the two, with a positive number indicating the team has played better with the player than without.

Again, very obvious to fans. The big three are Howard, Turk & Lewis. Arroyo, Nelson & Dooling were neutral contributors (ie. with big three on the court along with them the team succeeded, when they were on the court with others the team performance was poor.) The rest of the list is like dragging an anchor on a speedboat. Evans/Bogans hurts the team performance quite a bit. Cook, Foyle & Garrity quite a lot, with Garrity just killing the Magic when he's was on the floor.

Getting rid of any or all of the guards is not a bad summer plan. Just two years ago Nelson was the 2nd best player on the team. Now he's badly overpaid at $8 million.

Production
On Court/Off Court
Roland
Player
Min
Own
Opp
Net
On
Off
Net
Rating
Howard
78%
25.8
13.3
+12.5
+7.4
-1.6
+9.0
+11.1
Turkoglu
77%
20.2
14.6
+5.6
+7.0
+0.3
+6.8
+6.1
Gortat
1%
22.5
9.6
+12.9
+0.0
+5.5
-5.5
+5.5
Lewis
78%
18.9
14.6
+4.4
+6.5
+1.6
+5.0
+4.6
Arroyo
32%
14.6
15.3
-0.7
+5.1
+5.6
-0.5
-0.6
Nelson
50%
17.6
18.9
-1.3
+5.6
+5.3
+0.2
-0.7
Dooling
34%
16.0
16.1
-0.1
+4.4
+6.0
-1.6
-0.7
Bogans
56%
12.5
17.7
-5.2
+6.6
+4.0
+2.6
-2.1
Redick
7%
14.7
14.8
-0.1
-2.8
+6.1
-8.8
-3.6
Evans
41%
15.7
19.4
-3.6
+3.1
+7.1
-4.0
-3.8
Ariza
3%
14.5
20.2
-5.8
+4.6
+5.5
-0.9
-3.8
Augustine
4%
12.1
17.8
-5.7
+2.9
+5.5
-2.6
-4.4
Cook
14%
11.1
20.2
-9.1
+1.9
+6.0
-4.1
-7.1
Foyle
20%
11.2
18.7
-7.4
-0.8
+6.9
-7.8
-7.6
Garrity
7%
4.3
16.2
-11.9
+0.5
+5.8
-5.3
-9.3
Outlaw
0%
10.3
38.2
-27.9
-29.1
+5.5
-34.6
-30.6

14 Comments:

  • At 2:05 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Interesting numbers. The fact that the SG position was up-graded should make for better ratings there next year. With healthy bigs,rashard should get alot of help at improving our rating at the PF spot.

     
  • At 4:29 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    This comment has been removed by the author.

     
  • At 4:56 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    Assuming that Nelson can stay healthy and play the majority of the minutes at PG this coming season, the numbers there, which are about average in most categories, should improve.

    The SG position should be much-improved also with Pietrus and Lee, as you guys have said.

    About the only remaining drama remaining this off-season is which SG will go... Bogans or Redick.

     
  • At 8:46 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    Like I've been saying, the shooting guard position was obviously our worst on the floor. These numbers only further back that up.

    Nice info WeRDevos!

    Just a small correction, Nelson will be making 5.5 million next season. And 5 years from now, he'll be making 7.8. At least that is closer to the 8 million mentioned.

    Chris Duhon just signed for the MLE. Is he better than Nelson? I don't know. If he is, he definitely hasn’t proven it.

    But since everybody still thinks Nelson is so overpaid, I went and found a list that may make all of us feel a little differently.

    Here are some starting NBA PG salaries. They're in team name order, the players who are still on their rookie deals are not included, and neither are some recent signings.

    Mike Bibby - 14.9mil
    Kirk Hinrich - 10mil
    Jason Kidd - 21.3mil
    Allen Iverson - 20.8mil
    Chauncey Billups - 11mil
    Monta Ellis - 11mil (reportedly)
    Rafer Alston - 4.9mil
    TJ Ford - 8 mil
    Derek Fisher - 4.7mil
    Mo Williams - 8.3mil
    Devin Harris - 7.8mil
    Jamal Crawford - 8.6mil
    Luke Ridnour - 6.5mil
    Andre Miller - 10.3mil
    Steve Nash - 12.3mil
    Beno Udrih - 5.6mil
    Tony Parker - 11.5mil
    Gilbert Arenas - 17mil (reportedly)

    Some other NBA PG comparisons:

    Speedy Claxton - $5.8 million
    Earl Watson - $6.2 million
    Eric Snow - $7.3 million
    Bobby Jackson - $6.1 million
    Chucky Atkins - $3.4 million
    Jamal Tinsley - $6.7 million
    Marcus Banks - $4.2 million
    Mike James - $6.0 million
    Leandro Barbosa - $6.1 million
    Steve Blake - $4.6 million
    Antonio Daniels - $6.2 million

    Again, I’ll reiterate, Nelson will be making 5.5 million this coming season. Compared to the entire market of NBA PGs, how overpaid is Jameer Nelson?

    I think he is right in the middle, and that is where his pay is. Hell, even the numbers WeRDevos pulled had us at 14, again, right in the middle. Nelson deserves a little more credit than he gets. While he is not perfect, he does a solid job. If we can get the type of production out of him that we did in the playoffs, we’ll be fine. Especially considering the guards and defense we’ve picked up this off-season.

     
  • At 10:25 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    I have to agree, based on the list of PGs having a $5.5 million "neutral" contributor isn't bad. Paying $5.5 million for your fourth best player is probably about right. Just call me greedy. I want that 6'5" PG who could grow into a superstar.

    This team won 57 games with a bad back court. The potential is there for a better back court. Add a young tall guard like Crittenton and I could believe in even more, like getting past Detroit and playing for the Finals.

    Howard is that good. The front court around Howard is that good. The guards need to step up and the team is there.

    Get someone approaching Penny in 94/95 and we are dancing in June.

     
  • At 2:43 AM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    Good research on all the PG salaries, OVERWADED! Maybe now, some people won't be so quick to say how "overpaid" Jameer Nelson is when they see this list of salaries. 24 of the 29 PGs listed will make more this coming season than Jameer.

    Also, a typo in your last post WeRDevos... the Magic won 52, not 57 games last season. 57 is a nice number to shoot for this season, though it won't be easy; but it can be done.

     
  • At 1:24 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Good stuff guys. The only thing i'll touch on is the fact that maybe there's a place for JJ and keith mike. Right now there's no guarantee that CLee will overtake JJ for playing time in SVG's rotation. I mean,right now JJ has more experience all-around and might be ready defensively to hold his own against him in training camp. Keith is gonna be used alot as a back-up at SF and if that isnt working,he would be the only one worth something as JJ and CLee dont have much value.

     
  • At 4:13 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    Note to future GM's: don't draft the white guy from Duke. It never works out.

     
  • At 4:52 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    If you look at the 7.5 guys who had minutes in the playoffs it was

    Howard - Gortat
    Lewis - Turk
    Turk - Bogans
    Evans - Dooling - Bogans
    Nelson - Dooling

    I have to believe that the regular season rotation will work out something like:

    Howard - Gortat - Battie
    Lewis - Battie - Cook
    Turk - Bogans - Pietrus
    Pietrus - Lee - Bogans (or Bogans-Lee)
    Nelson - Johnson - Turk

    Fodder: Augustine, Redick, plus two empty slots.

    Yup, I heard SVG say that if there was a problem he was going to use Turkoglu at the point. Can't wait to see that happen.

    And I've completely given up on Augustine and/or Redick. I don't see SVG going beyond playing 11 guys in the regular season and 8 or 9 in the playoffs.

    I bet they start the season with no more than 14 players. I don't see the point in resigning Foyle after looking at the chart. Gortat is young, cheap and more athletic than Foyle. Unless Redick is capable of becoming an NBA player the team is pretty weak at backup SG and SF and 3rd PG.

    I could see a 2 for 1 swap sometime between now and February to address backup SF and PG. Cook, Bogans or Redick could be used to get an upgrade. The NJ Trade exception would give them something to work with if they have to take back a bit more salary.

     
  • At 4:52 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    And how cool is it to just assume that this team makes the playoffs?

     
  • At 6:46 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    By the way, I realize now you were talking about the playoffs, in addition to the regular season, when you said the Magic had 57 wins last season, WeRDevos. My mistake... sorry 'bout that!

    57 wins in the regular season would be a nice goal to shoot for, but I would be happy with 50-55 wins for the Magic, considering how much-improved the East should be.

     
  • At 6:49 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    Big Figure, you mentioned a scenario in which the Magic could keep both Bogans and Redick... I guess anything's possible, but I would be very surprised if Redick winds up with more playing time than Lee.

     
  • At 7:47 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    Just an update:

    The Magic waived James Augustine today, so that is one less player to worry about.

    I will not miss him. I expect him to be out of the NBA in the near future. He's not "enough" in any area of the game. Maybe if he learned to work harder, like a Bo Outlaw, or had a better shot, like a Jeff Turner; then maybe he could find a place, but I don't see it in him.

    Hopefully he has a backup plan after the NBA, or doesn’t mind the idea of playing in Europe.

     
  • At 7:49 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    I guess I should have looked at the main page first, as Mike had already posted on article on Augustine!

    Good job Mike!

     

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home