Orlando Magic Blog

Group Blog talking about the NBA 2009 Eastern Conference Champions. Due to the amazing success of the 2009 playoff run comments are now frequently deleted to kill offensive comments, incoherence, or asininity. Comments can no longer be anonymous and require either a Blogger or OpenID account.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Is Trading Grant a Good Idea?

Trading any player with an expiring contract is, in general, more attractive to the team that is on the receiving end of the expiring contract assuming that they intend to rebuild, and like to reduce their pay roll. The team that owns the expiring contract is in the driver’s seat because that salary is coming off of their books anyway. The only attraction to them is the player(s) of interest that they are not able to acquire, or are not sure they may acquire in a free agency market, and have to get them via trade. The downside is that they may have to resume some hefty salaries above and beyond what is the player(s)’ worth in a free market environment.

Now that we have stated the basic parameters for any typical trade, let’s turn our attention to Grant’s trade, and my simple straight forward answer is: IT DEPENDS. Grant’s salary of $16,901,500, as well as Pat Garrity’s $3,525,000 are coming off the book next season. That means that we are going to have more than 20 million dollars to spend in the free agency market that could land us a very good SG and a good enough big man to back-up Dwight, Darko and Tony. The question is who is on the block, and whether or not he will be available by summer? Unless there is no other way but by way of trading to get the player(s) that we are interested in, I am not favoring Grant’s trading, and here are my reasons:

1. Grant is still a productive player, and past his current contract, he may sign with the Magic for a veteran’s minimum salary since he may feel that he has short changed the Magic due to injuries, although a large portion of his contract may have been paid through the insurance.
2. Grant is a role model and a leader by example. His presence will help in developing Dwight, Jameer and other young players until somebody emerges as the leader of the team, which at present time despite Jameer’s claim nobody is ready to assume that role, in my view.
3. After his playing time is over, Grant may become productive in any front office role since he is well respected and very articulate. He could then act as an ambassador of good will, so to speak, or any other role that he is needed at. It is possible that some kind of gentlemen’s agreement may have already been reached with Grant, spelling in principle what the future may hold for him in the Orlando Magic organization

Having all that said, I did not have the time to research who are the players in the SG, as well as C and PF positions that may be available in the free agency market, this summer. Having that researched, we may then look at what salaries they carry, and whether or not they are worthwhile at their respective salaries. At the next phase we may probe into their potential availability by summer, and whether or not there might be interests by some teams to acquire them via trade, thus impeding their availability come summer.

14 Comments:

  • At 6:26 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Vince carter and rashard lewis will be the top free agents with leandro barbosa coming next,joe johson and mike miller could be had via trade because of how poor their teams are,a gm could go a few different ways.

     
  • At 7:47 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    I agree with Matt, that there is no solid, clear-cut answer to the question, because of all the variables involved that are mentioned in his post.

    Because of all the factors that Matt mentioned, I would be in favor of not trading Grant also, unless it's a trade that would really make sense for the Magic.

    As has been mentioned on our blog, the Magic made a huge blunder not signing Darko to a long-term contract before the season. Since he's a restricted free agent, and the Magic will surely match any offer that he gets, this will no doubt cost them more money than it would have if they had signed Darko before the season.

     
  • At 7:54 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    Do you really think Joe Johnson is that available? I'd pull the trigger for that guy in a heartbeat.

    Enough dreaming... Vince Carter scares me. I still question his desire. For being his contract year, he hasn't exactly been lighting the league on fire. He's not having a bad year, just not nearly as good as it could be. Then add on the fact that he's had injury problems in the past and he's 30. I also don't know if bringing in a "superstar" type will be good for our team? Guys like Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Michael Redd, etc come more to mind as being able to fit in, not ruffle any feathers, and come in understanding this is Dwight's team.

    Free agency wise, I've been saying Rashard Lewis since last summer. I'd gladly take the risk on him, he can do it all.

    In regards to Grant Hill, all I can say is what Matt said, it depends. In the end, I have a feeling he’s going to have to go. Because as long as he’s here, Brian Hill will continue to start him, and I just don’t think that’s going to work.

    Good point Mike... Probably half of our money is going to go to Darko, pending we match. Which could pretty much take us out of the running for any top dollar free agent.

     
  • At 7:59 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    7 out of the next 11 games are on the road to finish the month,3 out of the four home games are against san antone-detroit and houston which are games i wouldnt favor the magic in even being at home,there is a split for the all-star break so the magic should have ample rest,but boy its gonna be a tough stretch.I too am not in favor of trading grant,but "IF",i said "IF" the magic fall under 500% during this stretch a move has to be made in my opinion to save playoff positioning possibilities,last year we won without grant and currently we're 2 out of our last three without grant if trading him brings back a mike miller or joe johnson type than you have to do it because the nets and heat are raedy to knock the magic into 10th place with the magic holding a slight 3 game lead over both teams,with the way we've been playing lately that lead will be gone in another week or two.

     
  • At 8:06 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Hey guys i've been thinking lately about european coaches,think any of them are ready to be the next mike dantoni? Over here we dont have any way of knowing but i'd be willing to bet there's a few worthy of giving a shot too,hey we gave a shot to bsh.

     
  • At 10:20 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    Darko is making about $190,000 south of 7 million dollars. His value in the free agency market may be somewhere in the range of 10-12 million. That should absorb an extra 5 million out of about 20 million leaving us with 15 million to sign a SG and a big. Considering the glut in the guards and small forwards area, we may have to part with Keyon or Hedo, or may be both, to get a decent big man. Trevor and Grant could man the SF position, and therefore we may be able to part with Hedo, who in all honesty, did not prove to be such an outstanding player, and even as a shooter he is streaky and not reliable.

     
  • At 1:32 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    I did the math at home on this topic earlier in the summer and the available funds are less than you believe.

    These are from memory, but the Magic are over the cap currently. The $20 million will bring them about $10-12 million under the cap. Darko's raise will be in the $5 to $7 million region.

    All this then becomes how you fiddle with the signing schedule. The league will claim a 25% premium on Darko's current contract until he is actually signed or the Magic refute his rights. So the $10-12 million becomes about $8 to $10 million in available cap space. That's not enough to sign a max player, but more than the $5.5 million exception which makes it more enticing for a tier 2 free agent.

    In addition, if the Magic do nothing they are kissing this year goodbye.

    I've been of the opinion that Hill's injuries have been a major cancer for this club for 7 years. Who cares what he does after his retirement. The Dr. J experiment brought nothing to the Magic.

    Trade Hill now. Bring in a major resource to vault the Magic into the top 4. Show Howard they are committed to winning with him and not merely riding him to mediocrity as they have in the past.

    I would love to see a trade to bring Pau Gasol here. Even if you had to bundle Darko and/or Ariza to do it.

     
  • At 3:33 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    I agree with WeRDevos 100%.

    I'm often puzzled how everyone continues to include Grant Hill in our future plans. Think about it, who really thinks Grant Hill is going be a starter for this team in the future? He hasn't done it since he's been here, because he's been injured EVERY season he's been apart of the Magic; just like he is now. Throw in the fact that he’ll be 35 this year, and the odds are not on his side. I continue to believe this damages the team. Brian Hill and Otis Smith are usually the guys that say; "when healthy, Grant is still one of the better players in the league". Sure, he's still decent, but having a starter that can’t play on a consistent basis can't be good for a team. One game he's there, the next game he's not. It affects the entire team, including how other players go into a game, prepare, and perform. In addition, G Hill's style of play doesn't exactly compliment the type of offense we're trying to run through Dwight. That is why, since the summer, I've never wanted to see G Hill doing anything except coming off the bench. I don't care if Hedo is streaky. He wasn't nearly as streaky when he was playing without Grant coming in and out of the lineup. For that matter, neither was Jameer. Like I said, I'd be comfortable with Hill being a bench player, but I don't think that will ever happen here. Brian Hill doesn't have the balls to give a guy like Grant Hill a bench role. This is why we'll continue seeing him play out of position (when he plays). In turn, this is why I'd rather see Grant Hill go. The Magic are very close to having something special here. One move could be the difference. It won't take much to take the East, but if we do nothing, that's exactly what is going to happen.

     
  • At 11:30 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    I think some issues have been mixed up here. If Magic cares to get under the salary cap there is no point in trading Grant since by doing so they will assume the salaries of players received up to what Grant is making for whatever years they have left on their contracts. That, however, as I have pointed out repeatedly before, is not an issue to me since I don't believe any team can get to high places without making some sacrifices on accepting some luxury tax until they establish the necessary foundation. I have also pointed out that the teams' overall appreciation in value should make up for the luxury tax paid since the right mix of players leads to success, which in turn builds equity.

    Obviously, I hold Grant in a different esteem than some others do, and I am not gonna push for my views. Just a couple of notes:

    1 - Grant at a minimum veteran salary is a steal.
    2 - Grant is ranked 18th amongst shooting guards in the league; Hedo is ranked 38th amongst small forwards. I am willing to part with Hedo, if that brings a first class shooting guard to Orlando.
    3 - It is an absolute waste of time to talk about trading Grant in abstract. As my "IT DEPENDS" assertion indicates, that issue has to be examined with specific players in specific situations, like whether or not the player(s) of interest could be acquired in free agency market or not.

     
  • At 12:02 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    I've never figured out the magical role Grant Hill plays on an NBA team. He has zero career playoff success and is headed for his eighth strait year of finishing a season injured.

    I don't want him back next year at any price. I want this franchise to move forward and develop it's core.

     
  • At 1:35 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    It doesn't seem too difficult to figure out a guy who was once considered as heir apparent to the real king of basketball. The fact that he was not surrounded by the right group of people in Detroit for any measurable success does not wipe out his worth, totally. He is not impeding any core development unless we argue that most, if not all veterans have such an impeding effect. Additionally, who said he is gonna finish this season on injured list? he has been effective as a top scorer and stabilizer when he played (I may argue that Magic's success on their first trip outwest depended a lot on Grant's contribution), and when he didn't, Keith filled in nicely. I am baffled that when Magic is winning and Grant's contribution is obvious nobody is complaining, but when Magic starts loosing and Grant is injured (typical injuries that happens to all players), he would be pounded. We all need to get a grip on our personal views that are not supported by facts. Let's focus on the main elements that are impeding this team's success, mainly coaching and poor management, and Grant is not one such element.

     
  • At 3:11 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    I've felt the way I have about Grant for a long time.

    And if you take another look at what I said about him, I think I did a pretty good job of backing it up.

    For that matter, with both of WeRDevos comments, he backed both of them. Grant has been a cancer to this organization. When a max player has been injured for basically all 7 years of his contract, I think that's proof enough. And his other point, Grant has never won, but I don't think that had anything to do with him not being a great player. His surrounding players and the fact that he was never a leader I think had more to do with it. They always wanted him to be something he wasn't. Sure, he's a great example for any player out there, but that's because he's a good person. There is a difference between that and a leader. I've never questioned his character. The only thing I've questioned all along is him having a starting role with this Magic team. Why would you want the team to give him a position in the starting rotation when it hasn't worked out in 7 years? Again, I'd like to see Grant as a bench player. But knowing Brian Hill, he'll never use him that way. In turn, I'd rather see the soon to be 35 year old injury plagued player move on, so we could continue developing guys that will be around in the future. If you think about it, Trevor Ariza plays a lot like Grant Hill; except for the fact that he's 21 and on the rise, minus that he's hurt right now.

    Either way, this team still needs to land a shooting guard. That is the 1st obvious thing that needs to be done. Whether the SF spot is filled by Hedo, Ariza, or Hill; any of them can work if Orlando gets a quality shooting guard put in that line up.

    I take that back, the 1st thing that needs to be done is firing Brian Hill.

    In the end, if Grant Hill wasn't a soon to be 35 year old injury prone player, he'd have my vote too.

     
  • At 6:20 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    All I see are some personal statements of feelings (not all warranted) and some envisioning of Magic's future, which I respect although still debatable. It is, however, outrageous to call Grant, or his injury, a cancer. You have to realize the gravity of that name calling since, as it is known, a cancerous tumor is not only the piece that had to be CUT and THROWN OUT, but it could also SPREAD to other cells. Grant has tried, time after time, through unimaginable surgeries, that may have even claimed his life, and painful rehabilitation, to come back. you may fault him for not retiring earlier, but that is a personal decision that I would not sit in judgement of. When on the floor, he leads by example attacking the basket, recklessly, when he knows he is gonna get hit and hit hard. Granted he is not the type of leader Jordan, Magic or Bird were; not as vocal and as harsh they were if need be. He has a different style of leadership, which has its own merits. As for his salary, the ownership has been reimbursed for a large portion of it by the insurance. if they failed to get exemptions to bring in help, it was due to their own poor management.

    Grant has done nothing wrong that was within his control to avoid. Regardless, where we are now has nothing to do with the past. I did not say Grant has to start, but I envision a role for him in the Magic's future. It is unwise to bring the past into the equation of the present time assessments. Grant has been a major contributor to Magic's success early in the season. He was one of the best, if not the best player on the team.

    As a final note, I am against giving either Darko or Trevor in any trade for a big man. Our priority is a SG, and unless it is proven to me otherwise, I think we may wait until summer. If this season is lost, although I doubt any team can catch the Magic for the 8th spot, all is not lost. May be that is a blessing to get rid of the main element of impeding Magic's future, namely the dictatorship of this so=called coach, which sucking the life out of the team.

     
  • At 7:36 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    It isn’t Grant's fault. I feel for the guy and his continuous injuries. I respect the guy for continuing to fight. But his "bad luck" for 7 years has affected anything and everyone to do with the Magic.

    I am also with you in regards to keeping Darko and Ariza. I think if Ariza was playing right now, our team would be looking a lot better. I see Ariza as a future starter, and Darko should already be starting.

    It's weird...it's painful to watch the Magic struggle the way they are right now, but I almost don't mind it. I almost want the losing to continue, so Brian Hill can be tossed in the end. The problem is, we have injuries, meaning, Brian Hill has an excuse. What is it going to take to this guy out of here?

    P.S.-Penny Hardaway is my hero.

     

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