Magic Week Ahead

It’s too early to get a feel for the either the Magic or the league to look a whole month ahead. So I thought I would try just a weeks worth of predictions.

With 4 games down, the Magic we don’t have a good picture of what the regular rotation will be like; current total minutes break down like this:

Howard	128
Turk	127
Hill	122
Nelson	112
Dooling	106
Battie	101
Milicic	77
Arroyo (3 games)	70
Bogans	68
Garrity	25

It’s too early to say that the Magic are giving up on Darko, but he is averaging 19 minutes a game on a team that lacks big men. He needs to play, particularly after the Worlds. Ariza and the energy and defense he brings to the Magic is also clearly missed.

The good news is the Magic are out-rebounding opponents 39.8-31.5 and blocking 5.5 shots per game and shooting a whopping 50.9% from the field. The bad news is they average 20.5 turnovers per game and have an abysmal 0.82 assists/turnover ratio. Because of the turnovers they are averaging 4 fewer shots per game than their opponents and take 2 fewer 3 point shots per game.

Upcoming Schedule:

The Magic play 5 games, 3 on the road with a combined opponent record of 6-12 overall and 2-6 in the buildings where the games will be played. My expectation is 3-2 over the next week, possibly 4-1 with some luck.

8 SEATTLE 7:00: Seattle is 1-3, 0-2 on the road. Split series last year, each team winning at home. Magic favored by 7. Their points come from Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Luke Ridnour & Chris Wilcox. Wilcox is averaging 8 rebounds a game. The Sonics are giving up 7 blocked shots a game and the Magic average 5.5 blocks a game. The Sonics average 22 3 point shots per game, with Allen and Lewis taking 7.5+ each per game. Coach Bob Hill on the top ten list of coaches likely to be fired this year. Seattle giving up 104.8 ppg going into this one.

10 @ Indiana 7:00 3-1, 1-1 at home. Last year Magic were 0-3 vs. Pacers, 0-2 at Indiana. Rick Carlisle is an excellent coach that plays a 9 man rotation with 5 starters averaging around 30 minutes a game. Pacers average 7 blocks a game with Jermaine O’Neal averaging 3.75 bpg. Danny Granger, the guy the Magic should have taken in place of Vasquez is averaging 9.3 ppg, 5 rpg in 29 minutes. It’s possible he could be replaced as a starter by Jeff Foster.

11 @ Minnesota 8:00 currently 2-3, 1-0 at home. Last year Magic split series 1-1, each winning at home. Andrew Bynum just put up 20/14 against the Wolves, DH should be able to do the same. When you look at their stats, it still looks like Kevin Garnett and the 7 dwarves. Coach Casey #1 on the most likely to be fired list.

13 @ Boston 7:30:00 currently 0-3, 0-2 at home. Last year Magic were 3-1, 1-1 at Boston. Doc Rivers, how do you still have a job? Boston seems dedicated to youth and more youth, but two best players are Pierce & Szczerbiak. Rivers playing 10 guys. Boston rebounding well, getting shots blocked 5.0 times a game, and giving up 105 points per game.

15 DENVER 7:00 currently 0-2, 0-1 on road. Last year Magic split series 1-1, each winning at home. George Karl is insane, hates at least half his players at any given time, and is fun to watch. $10 million man Nene averaging 18.5 minutes a game so far. PG Andre Miller averaging 9.5 apg. None of this means much after only 2 games, except that Karl is insane.