To foul or not to foul... the actual numbers
The numbers and percentages in this article may surprise you.
Another article I found was written by two gentlemen who have a combined 80 years basketball coaching/teaching experience that explains their view on what they think should be done in that situation. Here's the link to type in for that:
When you get to that site, click on "Clock Management and Fouling", and scroll down to "End of Game Strategy".