Playoff Horse Race
Playoff Race:
I consulted my Crystal Ball and looked at the Magic’s chances for making the playoffs. With only 6 games left there is a glimmer of hope.
7. Indiana 36-40 overall, Hm: 23-14, Aw: 13-26, L10: 2-8
Playoff Chances: High. Should be favored in all 6 remaining games regardless of 2-8 record in last 10 games.
Expected Finish: 41-41
New York W New York on 3 game win streak but 7-30 on road.
Boston W Boston playing out string with young guys 12-27 on road.
Minnesota W Minnesota 8-30 on road.
@Charlotte W No frontline left. 15-23 at home. Slight chance for an upset.
@Toronto W Bosch gone, team on 8 games losing streak.
Orlando L Deserve playoffs.
8. Chicago 35-41 overall, Hm: 18-20, Aw: 17-21, L10: 6-4
Playoff Chances: Luke Warm. Will be favored in 3 of remaining 6.
Expected Finish: 37-45
Expected Ending Conference Record: 27-25 (current: 24-22)
NJ L Top 6 NBA team on a roll.
@Atlanta W ATL 17-21 at home. Magic fans must hope for an upset in this game.
Washington L Wash 14-21 on the road. Playing well.
@Miami L Miami should win, might not care enough though.
@Orlando L Orlando simply better at this point.
Toronto W Toronto gave up two weeks ago.
9. Philadelphia 35-41 overall, Hm: 21-18, Aw: 14-23, L10: 4-6
Playoff Chances: Weak. Will be favored in 1 of 6 remaining.
Expected Finish: 36-46
Washington L Wash 14-21 on the road. Playing well
@NJ L
@Miami L
@Orlando L
NJ L
@Charlotte W
10. Orlando 32-44 overall, Hm: 23-14, Aw: 9-30, L10: 8-2
Playoff Chances: Weak. Will be favored in 4 of 6 remaining
Predicted Finish: 37-45
Ending Record vs. Chicago: 2-2
Ending Conference Record: 26-26 (Current: 21-26)
Magic miss playoffs by tiebreaker with Chicago.
Atlanta W Every game is important starting here!
Toronto W FL Gators have more talent with Bosch out.
@San Antonio L Upset would be great! Dallas, Detroit, Miami…
Philadelphia W Must win.
Chicago W Must win
@ Indiana W Must win
I consulted my Crystal Ball and looked at the Magic’s chances for making the playoffs. With only 6 games left there is a glimmer of hope.
7. Indiana 36-40 overall, Hm: 23-14, Aw: 13-26, L10: 2-8
Playoff Chances: High. Should be favored in all 6 remaining games regardless of 2-8 record in last 10 games.
Expected Finish: 41-41
New York W New York on 3 game win streak but 7-30 on road.
Boston W Boston playing out string with young guys 12-27 on road.
Minnesota W Minnesota 8-30 on road.
@Charlotte W No frontline left. 15-23 at home. Slight chance for an upset.
@Toronto W Bosch gone, team on 8 games losing streak.
Orlando L Deserve playoffs.
8. Chicago 35-41 overall, Hm: 18-20, Aw: 17-21, L10: 6-4
Playoff Chances: Luke Warm. Will be favored in 3 of remaining 6.
Expected Finish: 37-45
Expected Ending Conference Record: 27-25 (current: 24-22)
NJ L Top 6 NBA team on a roll.
@Atlanta W ATL 17-21 at home. Magic fans must hope for an upset in this game.
Washington L Wash 14-21 on the road. Playing well.
@Miami L Miami should win, might not care enough though.
@Orlando L Orlando simply better at this point.
Toronto W Toronto gave up two weeks ago.
9. Philadelphia 35-41 overall, Hm: 21-18, Aw: 14-23, L10: 4-6
Playoff Chances: Weak. Will be favored in 1 of 6 remaining.
Expected Finish: 36-46
Washington L Wash 14-21 on the road. Playing well
@NJ L
@Miami L
@Orlando L
NJ L
@Charlotte W
10. Orlando 32-44 overall, Hm: 23-14, Aw: 9-30, L10: 8-2
Playoff Chances: Weak. Will be favored in 4 of 6 remaining
Predicted Finish: 37-45
Ending Record vs. Chicago: 2-2
Ending Conference Record: 26-26 (Current: 21-26)
Magic miss playoffs by tiebreaker with Chicago.
Atlanta W Every game is important starting here!
Toronto W FL Gators have more talent with Bosch out.
@San Antonio L Upset would be great! Dallas, Detroit, Miami…
Philadelphia W Must win.
Chicago W Must win
@ Indiana W Must win
posted by WeRDevos @ 3:58 PM
11 Comments:
At 4:15 PM,
Big Figure said…
If the magic and the bulls finish with the same record,who gets the tie breaker? And by weR's statistics,an ATL upset could get us in by one game over CHI,i'd love for this team to play detroit,carlos & darko against their old team,why not,win or lose that would be fun to watch and well worth it for the experience factor(setting our playoff standard against the best),we might even be able to make it interesting!
At 4:42 PM,
WeRDevos said…
My understanding is tiebreaker goes head to head, then to conference record. Chicago would get in anyway if my crystal ball is working.
At 5:01 PM,
Matt said…
Well done, WeRDevos. That's is why I think the game at SA should be a determining game for the Magic. If they pull a win out of SA, and Chicago loses one more game than your projection, Magic does not need the IND game. Additionally, as Magic gets closer, some nervousness may creep into CHI's game.
At 6:52 PM,
Mike from Illinois said…
You've got a pretty good crystal ball there, WeR. Your projected records for each team look really accurate... if only we could squeeze in 1 more Magic win or 1 more Bulls loss.
Also, the Sixers looked really good Saturday night with a surprisingly easy win at Chicago, without Chris Webber. I look for Philly to get 1 more win than is projected. It's possible that PHI, CHI, and the Magic could all finish at 37-45. If that were the case, how would the tiebreaker work? When I have time later on, I'll research this in case no one can come up with a definitive answer.
At 7:08 PM,
WeRDevos said…
From NBA.com
(1) Head-to-head
(2) Conference Record
(3) vs. Teams ultimately at-or-over .500
(4) Head-to-Head cumulative point differential
(5) Coin toss (tied teams listed alphabetically above)
Magic are currently:
1-2 vs. Chicago with 1 remaining game.
2-1 vs. Philadelphia with 1 remaining game.
0-2 vs. Indiana with 1 remaining game.
Conference Records:
Indiana 20-27, 5 remaining
Chicago 24-22, 6 remain
Philadelpha 19-27, 6 remain
Orlando 21-26 5 remain
If Magic beat Chicago and match records at the end of the year the tiebreaker is conference record.
If the Magic continue to win this will be fun to follow. Brian Hill says it won't be settled until the last game of the year. Here's hoping that he is right.
At 7:29 PM,
Mike from Illinois said…
WeR, I notice that you have the Bulls' projected ending conference record at 27-25. Right now, they are 24-22. If they lose 4 of their last 6 remaining games, as projected, which are all conference games, they would finish with a 26-26 conference record, not 27-25. The Magic would also finish with a 26-26 record, as projected.
That would get us down to the third tie-breaker... record vs teams that are over .500.
At 8:24 PM,
Matt said…
Nice exchange guys. The fun has just started to build up.
At 10:33 PM,
Mike from Illinois said…
With the PHI win, and that they now hold the 8th spot in the East pending the outcome of the Bulls/NJ game Tues. night, the Magic's "tragic number" to being eliminated from playoff contention is now down to 3.
Basically, the Magic can only lose 1 more game and PHI can win only 1 more game. PHI has a tough 3 game road trip coming up though (see the post by WeRDevos).
Key game tomorrow night between NJ/CHI.
At 11:13 PM,
WeRDevos said…
Well I missed on the Wash @ Philly game but 76ers could still lose next 4. Magic would have a tie-breaker advantage against them with a 3-1 head to head advantage.
All this requires a minimum of 4-1 finish. Six games ago I predicted a 6-5 finish and so far they are 5-1. I'm happy to be wrong so far.
At 8:23 AM,
WeRDevos said…
Three-Team Tiebreaker
1. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
2. Highest winning percentage in conference games
3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
5. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed
At 2:00 AM,
william said…
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