Orlando Magic Blog

Group Blog talking about the NBA 2009 Eastern Conference Champions. Due to the amazing success of the 2009 playoff run comments are now frequently deleted to kill offensive comments, incoherence, or asininity. Comments can no longer be anonymous and require either a Blogger or OpenID account.

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Daily Dime

Some good stuff and interesting views like the one below on Detroit, Orlando, and Darko.

Darko is a calculated risk. But the Magic have little to lose at this point. And it's easy to see the upside, still.

Had Darko stayed in Serbia the past two years and continued to produce the numbers that he produced when he was 17 years old, he likely would've been the No. 1 pick in the 2006 draft. The hype around him would only have grown, assuming a normal progression. So the Magic ended up trading a lottery-protected pick for a guy who likely would have gone No. 1.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dailydime-060216

23 Comments:

  • At 9:22 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    I think everybody agree's that darko could help,but the real question is whats gonna happen with steve,will he be traded or not?

     
  • At 10:06 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    Let's put this to rest. We got Darko and we are happy about it. Sports commentators are not business consultants and are not expected to know the numbers game. Perdue's logic is very much in line with Otis's statement and that's absolute nonesense. Good or bad, Darko has an NBA record and is not fresh out of the draft. As for Steve, my guess is he is gonna be traded below his value and that's another shame. The fact is neither the management nor the coach have the weight or the wisdom to handle this situation, and that makes his trade inevitable.

     
  • At 10:14 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    It's interesting that in last night's game Whit Watson was commenting on in passing that in the huddle he has seen Steve as engaged as he has ever seen him, paying all attention to coach's instruction. He added that he doesn't know whether or not it has something to do with the trade rumors.

     
  • At 10:36 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    Current Magic Payroll for next year is at 8 contracts and $56.5 million not including Stevenson, Battie, Diener or Kasun. Add those 4 at a guess of around 10 million and the team is at $66 million and paying a minimum of $5 million in luxury tax.

    Add a top pick & a second to round out to 14 contracts and the team is at $68-69 million. If Spanish guy shows up it's another $2 million.

    There's no way they are going to let that happen. All payroll problems and lack of flexibility go away with Francis. If Francis is dumped your looking at a solid core of young players and about $25 million in cap space entering the summer of 2008. All the hopelessness of last week could be suddenly swept away.

    Top rumors have Francis going to NY, Denver or Minny, or some combination of those teams in a multiple scenario.

     
  • At 11:03 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    WeRDevos, your persistence on cap space as the only element for business decision making is misplaced. I have quoted parts of my posting of this morning to draw your attention to a few other elements that are in play:

    "You all are correct in your views with a respective narrow angle.".
    "Let's put aside all shortcomings and mismanagement that resulted in Steve's situation. Steve is an all-Star and he played well last year despite all the hardship and controversies. I am not a proponent of going under salary cap at all costs and then going into free agency market to grab the pieces you need. There are teams in the league that have gone through that cycle multiple times. Heck we went through it a few times too, either at a smaller or larger scale. If DET's model is any indication you should hang on to the right pieces and wait patiently until the right moment to add that missing piece. In the meantime you make sure that you retain the pieces that you don't want to lose. That's why I totally disagree with salary dump as a focal point. In any business you should look for venues to offset your necessary costs, and if you don't find such venues then you cut costs. The same rule applies to salary dumping in NBA. Many teams in NBA are operating above cap and offsetting the costs through other venues ... like DAL and SA.

    Now the generally accepted rule of thumb is that you need two star-level players on a contending team. So if you have two and for some reasons one is not a fit you don't dump him, but rather wait to trade him for a relatively comparable player. I sincerely believe that Steve could be managed in short term until a reasonable trade comes along. An Andre Miller sort of player although not at the same level. Trading him for Crawford type of players is a waste of star, and believe me they are hard to come by through draft except in cases of true luck."

     
  • At 11:37 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    Steve has been an all-star, we understand that. That was a few years back. Steve is like one of those cases of "best friend/worst enemy", especially this year. Even before all his current issues, there have been reasons to question his style of play. One, his turnover problems are never going to cease. Two, does he actually make any of his teammates better? Sure he's shown flashes a game here or there, but it's never been consistent. Three, is he a "winner", because his career and past say he's not.

    My other thought was he's the kind of guy that if he is in the game, shooting or not, is going to have the ball a whole lot. What that means, is that other players will be deprived of it when they could use the experience. It also means he'll be taking up a lot of playing time and slowing the development of guys that are going to be around longer than this year. They've pretty much stated we are rebuilding. We're not going to try and put a bandaid on a severed arm. So, the rest of this season should be put to developing our young guys that are going to be around for years to come. I understand why you'd say to keep him if you can't get anything for him. If the best the Magic can get for him now is Penny, then I agree he stays. If any combination of the other names that have come up are possible, it's time for him to move on, otherwise we're just standing still and slowing the growth of our future team.

     
  • At 4:53 AM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    I worry that BHill might somehow mess things up because of his stubborn refusal to change things up when needed. Like Omar said in a previous post, why isn't TDiener playing more, and what did he do to get buried on the end of the bench? Hill would rather play Garrity, who played 24 minutes at MIA, and did not score a single pt and grabbed only 1 rebound that game.

    Let's all hope that Hill gives the younger players who haven't played that much (Darko and Travis, especially Darko) the playing time they need to show how much they can help the Magic after the All-Star break.

     
  • At 8:48 AM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    Matt, when your team is $20 million over the cap and going nowhere it's all about cap space and managing the cap. When your team is 12th in its conference and really going nowhere it's all about youth and managing cap space.

    The value of any player in the cap age must include the players current talent vis-a-vis other available players, his age which is a major contributing factor to future performance and his contract and its affect on a teams flexibility. In the case of Francis it appears most of the NBA views the burden of his contract and his age outweighs his play on the court.

    Steve Francis turns 29 in 4 days. He is owed $49 million over the next 3 years after this season. In the next 3 years his contract alone will represent 29.5%, 31.5% and 32% of the expected cap. All this for a player that is no longer on anyones top ten PG lists.

    As he gets older, his burden on the cap is increasing. Why would you be against trading him now?

    I care so much about the cap because I don't want to go through another summer where the Magic are limited to signing one $3 million player and makes no trades as it attempts to become a playoff team?

     
  • At 9:38 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    WeRDevos, I am not arguing the validity of the points that you have raised. They fall short when you make the cap space the only element. I have given you the examples of teams that went below cap space a few times, intentionally, and still are nowhere. I also gave you the examples of teams that are operating above cap but are offsetting the extra costs from side revenues generated. I don't want to go under cap and repeat the failures of Bulls, Warriors and likes. Remember that one detrimental summer when Magic and Bulls had all the cap space in the world, and where are they now, 5 years later? I say hang on to Francis until the right trade comes along for a good player with star-quality potential. You may set a time-frame for that trade if you wish. I know that Steve's trade in current circumstances is inevitable. I just hope they show more wisdom in doing so. However, I have to admit that they don't have as much leverage as they did in Darko's deal. Needles to say that they have dug a good hole on their own. We would not have been where we are with Steve had the coach or the front office shown some property on the upper floor.

     
  • At 10:01 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Matt in keeping it short,your basic point is,none of the present trades involving steve impress you,right? You guys are doing so much talking,and aint getting to none of the basic's! Matt think's none of the present deals are worth it,period! But it seems like everyone else says move steve now,and see what you can get before the trade deadline,b/c of reason's weR has pointed out! It's really about which side of the fence your on,b/c if steve is moved before the deadline you can expect not to get equal value!

     
  • At 10:06 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    To address a point raised by Mike on Brian Hill playing the young players, I think Darko's situation is different than Diener's in a sense that Darko's investment is much larger thus forcing Hill to play him to some degree. I think since the coach wishes to make to the play-offs, and understandably so, until the team is mathematically eliminated, Darko may not get as many minutes that Steve Kerr may have thought (30-35 minutes) but close enough, especially if he shows promise in the game situations. I hope that he uses Diener a lot more than he does.

     
  • At 10:08 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    I also think,mike's exactly right when it comes to coach hill,he could mess things up,he's the next order of business in my opinion,if he messes up anything after the break,he should be outta here,like not playing guys,or playing the wrong guys to much,coach hill has nothing to be able to blame anymore,he's only got one injured player in jameer,and jameer should be back in a couple weeks,but untill then we're deep enough that we still should be able to win games!

     
  • At 10:15 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    Big Figure, you are right that we have fundamental differences on how to tackle Steve's situation. Unless somebody proves to me that Steve is such a disruptive force, in my view, instead of clearing the cap space for 2008 we should get the best possible return for immediate use. I draw your attention to Whit Watson's comments on Miami game's night about Steve and how attentive he was.

     
  • At 10:21 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    To reiterate, we have one star in Dwight, and potential stars in Darko and Jameer. If we get a quality player with upside potentials for Steve, we don't need to clear cap space to go to the free agency market in 2008 while it's doubtful to have quality players available. We would become a competitive team in 2007.

     
  • At 10:39 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Matt,i heard whit make those comments,he actually said that "steve seems to be hanging on coach hill's every word" right after he made the comment about how engaged steve seemed to be,i can give you my opinion of why i think steve would do that,but i think you'll take away from it,that i think steve should be moved (even though that's what i believe,if he's not moved to the two permenantly)and might not get my point,but i'll try anyway! But first i'd like to pose a question,does anyone here think that steve doesnt like coach hill anymore? I think steve is pulling the wool over everybodies eyes!By making yourself look so engaged,poeple around you will start talking about what looks like commitment,good talk is better than bad talk,right? But the reason i think it's fake,is b/c steve's lack of desire to take the ball to the basket and be the dominating player that we all know he can be,how many times did he post up jason williams who is a horrible defender,what once,see steve thinks by making it look like he's involved he can fool all the poeple that come to the game that really dont break down the game,but he cant,there's poeple like all of us,that will remember what it looks like when steve's head is in the game,thats just my opinion!A possible reason for it,could be that he doesnt want other teams to just see him give up,at least if he acts like he's engaged,he doesnt look like a quitter,even though thats what he's doing on the court (quitting),and other teams will still inquire b/c it looks like he's giving max effort on the court to outsiders,but us insiders know the truth!

     
  • At 10:44 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    I think steve's acting engaged for his personal benefit,and not b/c he's a mature adult,steve does things for himself,if you havent already noticed,if it were someone like grant hill we were talking about,then i'd say no way,it's genuine,but not steve,he's showed us what kind of guy he is!

     
  • At 10:46 AM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    My point on Francis is that his salary far exceeds what he's offered on the court (and off.) He has million dollar talen and a 10 cent head. Last year it was turnovers, T's and kicking photographers. This year it's turnovers and depression and looking to John Lucas for help and direction.

    Let him try and learn how to become a winner in another city. The Magic don't have enough management talent to help him here so it becomes addition by subtraction. Any contributing player that comes back along with the salary dump becomes a bonus.

     
  • At 10:47 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    Big Figure, I wished I knew what's in Steve's head. I would say this, however, if he cares for his image and value to the extent of trying to fool us to believe that he is engaged, that's a progress compared to the situation that he was acting so senselessly stupid damaging everything and everybody including himself.

     
  • At 10:54 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    Heck, if trade deadline passes and Steve re-commits himself by acting at least for his own good, we have a chance to push for the payoffs with Darko coming in. Should that happen, amongst other benefits, Steve's value would increase.

     
  • At 11:28 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    First we need to be thinking about,"if" steve is still here when the trade deadline passes?,then we can worry about if he re-commits himself or not!

     
  • At 11:39 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    But i'm all for a move to the shooting guard for steve,b/c then it's not all about him,i'd give arroyo the ball until jameer returns and let him make plays,does anyone of you remember when the magic visited utah when arroyo was the point guard,he straight up killed us,he got a little help from giricek,but basically just did whatever he wanted on our defense,scoring and passing,oh and the puerto rican team that he started at the point on,beat us also,a team full of americans,so the boy can ball,with him and steve in the back court,they would compliment each other well,arroyo can shoot the three and has a pass first mentality,while steve (after the trade deadline)can resume being the player we know he can be,b/c the deadline will have come and gone,according to his statement!

     
  • At 3:05 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    Matt, you made an interesting comment when you compared the Magic to the Bulls the summer that both teams had all the cap space, and you asked where are both teams now 5 years later?

    Well, the Bulls had a terrific run last season and finished 4th in the East. They hired a very smart GM in John Paxson who did a heck of a job cleaning up the mess that Jerry Krause left him, and hired the perfect coach for that team in Skiles, who does a brilliant job teaching, coaching, and playing his whole roster.

    The Bulls, however, regressed this year, mainly because of the trade just before training camp of their leading scorer last season in Eddy Curry, a trade that had to be made because of Curry's mysterious heart condition and the fact Paxson didn't want to sign Curry to a long-term contract without Curry taking a DNA test regarding his heart.

    But the Bulls are now starting to bounce back and are only 2 games back of Philly for the final playoff spot. Like the Magic, the Bulls have a great core of young players. However, the Magic have a potential superstar in Dwight, while it's too early to say if any of the present Bulls will be a future superstar. The main difference here is that the Bulls have a coach in Skiles who is superior in every way to BHill. And you're right Matt, the Magic really blew it when they had a chance to hire Skiles and didn't.

     
  • At 4:40 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    Thanks, Mike. I appreciate your well thought and well structured comments.

     

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