Orlando Magic Blog

Group Blog talking about the NBA 2009 Eastern Conference Champions. Due to the amazing success of the 2009 playoff run comments are now frequently deleted to kill offensive comments, incoherence, or asininity. Comments can no longer be anonymous and require either a Blogger or OpenID account.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Arroyo vs Dooling: A closer look at the numbers

Since both Keyon Dooling and Carlos Arroyo have expiring contracts at the end of this season, if the Magic had to trade one of those players, which one would they be better off trading? Here's a look at their stats from last season:

Arroyo's numbers are first followed by Dooling's numbers in parenthesis:

G........ 72 (66)
MIN.... 18.1 (21.8)
PPG.... 7.7 (7.9)
FG%.... 42.5% (41.1%)
3 PT FG%.. 27.5% (32.3%)
FT%.... 79.5% (80.9%)
AST.... 2.8 (1.7)
TO..... 1.3 (1.1)
AST/TO... 2.2/1 (1.5/1)
REB.... 1.9 (1.3)
STL.... 0.5 (0.8)

When one averages their numbers out to a whole game (48 minutes), here's what they look like (with Arroyo's numbers first):

PPG.... 20.4 (17.4)
AST.... 7.4 (3.9)
TO..... 3.4 (2.5)
REB.... 5.3 (2.9)
STL.... 1.3 (1.8)

Their stats are remarkably similar. In nine statistical categories, Dooling has the advantage in five categories, while Arroyo has the advantage in four. However, when their numbers are projected out to a full game, Arroyo gets a clearer advantage in several categories, because Arroyo achieved his numbers in fewer minutes of playing time per game than Dooling. The better categories for Arroyo are his AST/TO ratio, points per 48 minutes, and rebounds per 48 minutes, while Dooling is a better 3 pt shooter, a slightly better FT shooter, and steals the ball slightly more.

In fairness to Dooling, he was played out of position at SG most of last season by Brian Hill; that's the main reason his assist numbers are down. Also, even though Arroyo averages more rebounds over the course of a game, Dooling is still the better defensive player.

Based on the numbers, a good argument can be made for either player not to be traded; it all boils down to personal preference.

3 Comments:

  • At 7:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Thanks for this post. It was helpful. Still, this tough to figure because of variables we don't have stats for, including: how will they play under SVG's system, who's the better leader on the floor & in the locker room (I assume Keyon, but I don't know), and which is better in amorphous defensive areas (pressuring opposing guards, guarding the pick & roll, etc.)? I think the same questions could be legitimately asked about Jameer.

     
  • At 8:29 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    Thank you, Mike. That was a complete and well keeled post. I agree that based on the numbers it is hard to differentiate the two, and it basically comes down to factoring the intangibles based on the tasks that are assigned to the player. In another word, from their value to the team's standpoint, we can settle this comparison statistically but not before we know what their assigned tasks may be, within what system of play, and whether or not they have to fare in as starters.

     
  • At 4:36 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    Thanks Mike. That was helpful.

    It's still a tough call, but as mentioned, it should come down who fits in with the team the best; especially if Denver is just looking for a salary dump.

    It's interesting to look at the stats and break down the situations. For the most part, their numbers are similar, but their situations were totally different.

    Arroyo was primarily used as a backup point guard, but he went in and out of Brian Hill's dog house, which is why he played less minutes.

    Where as Dooling, was one of Brian's boys, but he often played him out of position at the 2 spot.

    The reason I went back and looked at their career numbers was because it's hard for me to look at any of our player’s numbers from last season in an accurate way, because Hill was the coach. From top to bottom, I think a lot of our players would have had better stats if Hill wasn't the coach; and that includes all 3 point guards.

    One question I have with Dooling, because it was mentioned how his assists were down because he was played out of position. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he was able to play PG on the Clippers and Heat? The most assists he's ever averaged is 2.3 a game. I just don't know how much that aspect of his game can improve.

    One thing any of us can watch, at least before the NBA season get rolling are the FIBA games. Arroyo played amazing in them last summer. He seemed to carry that momentum into the season; if you recall, a hot topic early last season, was how the team looked better when Arroyo was running the show rather than Jameer. We were also complaining how in 4th quarters, we’d start to pull away from teams while Arroyo was in, only to have Hill put Nelson back on the court, and kill the momentum. It was probably a 50/50 at that point on who wanted Nelson to keep his starting job, and who wanted Arroyo starting.

    But time passed, Arroyo struggled a few games, Hill developed a problem with him, and he never really recovered. It was weird, because when Nelson struggled, he would still get his minutes, even when Arroyo was outplaying him. But when Arroyo started to struggle, he was rewarded with DNP’s coach’s decision. I often wonder how much of Arroyo's struggles had to do with Brian Hill.

     

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