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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Nuggets/Magic trade not happening soon

Magic still in the market | floridatoday.com
Evans, 27, has proven himself to be a premier rebounder when given significant minutes and he's a better-than-average post defender. He could fortify a Magic frontline that will have Dwight Howard, Tony Battie and little else.

Payroll concerns also are an issue for the Nuggets, who have $78 million on the books for next season. Getting out from under the $18.8 million still owed to Evans during the next four seasons might appeal to Denver.

One rumored trade could feature the Magic sending Keyon Dooling and Pat Garrity to Denver for Evans and enigmatic shooting guard J.R. Smith. The Magic would have to throw in another low-salaried player to make the deal work. Both Dooling and Garrity have expiring contracts, something that would be appealing to the Nuggets.

Orlando also has a hole at shooting guard after losing Grant Hill to the Phoenix Suns in free agency. Smith would rise to the top of the depth chart in Orlando where his long-range shooting would complement Howard's low-post dominance.

"We still have a lot of conversations going on, but I wouldn't say we're close to anything right now," said Magic general manager Otis Smith, who was beginning a vacation with his family Tuesday. "We've talked to a bunch of people and we'll continue to do that."

The article continues to say the Magic only have the veterans $1.2 million exception left to spend. That may be used on Foyle. JR Smith shot 39% from 3 pt. line last year. He is talented, but a head case.

Of course, Dooling and JJ fans here probably don't like the idea. Dooling would be gone, and JJ would have trouble beating JR out for the starting SG. Evans could possibly start in front of Battie.

Anyhow, it's likely nothing happens for about a month:

"What's the hurry? You have to ask yourself, 'Who are we hurrying for?' " Smith said. "What guy out there right now won't be there later in September? Foyle is a prime example. We don't want to fill up our roster and have no room to do anything else down the road. We're going to be patient and if something makes sense, we'll do it."


20 Comments:

  • At 2:04 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    I'm a Dooling and JJ fan and I'd still do the deal; however I'd rather trade Arroyo than Dooling.

    I'm not sure how thrilled I am about Otis, and his "no hurry approach". I can understand being patient to some extent, but if they can get a solid big like Evans or Foyle for next to nothing, I don't know how long I'd wait.

    Reading between the lines and giving Otis the benefit of the doubt; since he is being "patient", I'm guessing there are a few other bigger deals that have at least been entertained. And I don’t consider Webber or Brown a bigger deal or better option.

    Or another way I could take it; Otis’s tone and wording in his comments sound really similar to the ones in his dealings with Darko, and we all know how that turned out.

     
  • At 4:03 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    J.R. Smith sure did have an enigmatic season with the Nuggets last year. His stats fron the season:

    G 63
    MIN 23
    PPG 13.0
    FG% 44.1%
    3 PT FG % 39.0%
    FT% 81.0%
    TO 1.4

    Smith had 11 games of 20 pts or more, including games of 37 and 36 pts. He had 18 games where he made at least four 3 pt FGs, including two games of six 3 pt FGs and 1 game of seven. However, the last 3 months of the season, he had only 3 games of 20+ pts.

    Compare all those stats with his playoff stats in the five game series DEN played against the Spurs:

    G 4 (did not play in Game 5)
    MIN 11.7
    PPG 4.5
    FG% 27.3% (6 for 22)
    3 PT FG% 0.0% (0 for 12)

    Talk about an alarming dropoff!

    However, Smith will not turn 22 until NOV, and no question, for whatever reasons, he fell out of George Karl's favor the last few months. A change of scenery would really help him, and give the Magic more outside firepower. If Reggie Evans would be included in the deal, that should make it pretty much a no-brainer for Otis. We wouldn't be losing much in Garrity, but we would miss Dooling's defensive presence. As pointed out, the expiring contracts of Garrity and Dooling are very appealing for the Nuggets, which is why Dooling would have to be included.

    I think J.J. Redick and Smith would make a great tandem at the SG for the Magic.

     
  • At 5:39 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    I think his drop in numbers makes sense.

    When the season started, Denver didn't have AI.

    Then they acquired AI, but Melo got suspended for a bunch of games for that hit and run punch.

    Then, Melo finally returned... The Nuggets were taking a lot of heat because they were still losing. Melo and AI started to actually play and they won a few games.

    Still, winning or losing, his numbers should have gone down with AI and Melo on the floor taking up the majority of minutes and shots. I wouldn’t be surprised if a bunch of their player’s numbers went down once AI and Melo were both playing.

    If he has any problem at all; it's his attitude. But I honestly don't know how bad that is.

    He does have a huge upside, and Stan Van Gundy would be a great coach for Smith as a player and person.

    The fact of the matter is, both Smith and Evans still have the potential to be starters in this league in the right situation. We'd be giving up one player who isn't even good enough to make the active list, and a bench player. I'd say it's worth the risk.

     
  • At 7:03 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    No question, the acquisition of Iverson had a dramatic effect on the playing time and scoring numbers of J.R. Smith.

    Smith really got rusty towards the last few months of the season with Iverson getting most of the playing time at SG, which culminated in Smith's poor numbers in the playoffs against the Spurs.

     
  • At 9:21 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    It makes me giddy thinking the Magic could have 3 point shooters 2-deep at both SF and SG.

    Not to mention what Ariza brings when healthy.

    This SVG guy better be good.

     
  • At 9:33 PM, Blogger Ben Q. Rock said…

    I don't like this move if it costs us Dooling. Sure, we'd have a ton of three-point threats, but we'd have exactly one decent perimeter defender: Trevor Ariza. I know Stan is offensively minded, but I hope he realizes that Dooling's defense is important, both for shutting down the opposition's best small guard and for starting fast-breaks.

     
  • At 11:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I'm a little concerned about the quality of JR Smith, as a person. Some blogs have noted he's got attitude issues, and in June he ran a stop sign, hit another car, and a passenger in his SUV died.

     
  • At 11:38 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    I am against including Keyon in any trade. Keyon, in my book, not only is the insurance for Jameer, but is also a starter if Jameer keeps struggling. Between Garrity and Keyon we are looking at over 6 million dollars in salary that could be used in the free agency market last year. Evans for Garrity and Arroyo is the only trade that makes sense to me. Chinese have an old say about "No harm ever comes from inaction". If that is Otis Smith's motto, it has been disproved in modern era. In fact, inaction sometimes causes more harm than any mistaken action.

     
  • At 11:40 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    Sorry, Imeant next year.

     
  • At 1:23 AM, Blogger Ben Q. Rock said…

    6 mill off the books next year could net us an above-average player. I'd rather see Otis fill the center/power forward need now, though, which is why I am for making a trade, but against making a trade involving Keyon Dooling.

     
  • At 2:40 AM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    Some thoughts...

    The Magic should have around 11 million coming off the cap next summer with those 3 players. However, Garrity is the only one that is definitely not going to be back. Dooling and Arroyo will both probably be able to get around 3 million a year.

    Dwight's new contract will kick in next summer and he'll be making 9 million more than this season. Rashard will be getting 2 million more. Jameer could be in for a raise, but that is still left to be determined.

    If we resigned Arroyo and Dooling, we'd have ZERO room for free agents. Even if we resigned one of them, we're still not going to be able to sign anyone that's going to make a difference. Our days of making any major signing in free agency are all but over. The best we'll ever be able to do is the MLE from this point on.

    I don't think any of us favor Arroyo over Dooling. However, there is money here to consider. Call me crazy, but if the Magic trade or let Arroyo go, there is going to be a lot of Hispanic people throwing fits in Orlando. I think it's stupid, because ultimately it should be about what's best for the basketball team. But when it comes down to dollars, Arroyo is going to make the Magic organization a hell of a lot more money than Dooling, no questions asked.

    Defensive concerns were mentioned. Dooling is our best defender when it comes to opposing point guards. However, Bogans and Ariza are more than solid perimeter defenders. But both of them will usually be defending 2's and 3's rather than 1’s.

    I think having a guy like Dooling (who reminds me a little of Armstrong) pressuring opposing point guards down the court is much underrated. It’s something that a lot of players don’t do, and a lot of teams don’t have. It wears on opposing point guards, and makes them rush once they finally get into their offensive sets. Again, I’d like to see Dooling stay.

    I want to make this clear; I want to keep Dooling. I even agree with Matt, he could be starter, but so could Nelson or Arroyo. AND if it comes down to trading GARRITY and Dooling to making this team better; trading for a enforcer/rebounder/defender in Evans, and getting a young high-flyer who can shoot the 3-ball, full of potential, with a questionable attitude in Smith... It's just my opinion, but I like the deal. You got to give something, to get something. I'm with werdevos; the thought makes me giddy.

     
  • At 6:54 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    You all have brought up valid points as to why the trade should or shouldn't be made; however, I'm with OVERWADED and WeRDevos that I think the trade should be made; even though we would miss Dooling's defensive presence in the back court (and insurance in case Jameer struggles), we would be getting a solid front court defender in Evans and another 3 pt threat in Smith.

    I have enough confidence in Carlos Arroyo that he can be adequate insurance for Jameer to take over as the starting PG if necessary.

     
  • At 10:28 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    This comment has been removed by the author.

     
  • At 10:29 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    Some of the analysis posted are flawed. They tend to embellish the value of Evans and Smith, as well as the capacity of Jameer and Carlos. By losing Keyon, we would lose a potential starter in a position that neither Jameer nor Carlos could fill in the gap due to their defensive liabilities. One other flaw in analysis is that in the same token that Garrity and Dooling's expiring contracts are important to Denver, they should be important to us too, since they are going to come off of our books by next year.

     
  • At 6:59 AM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    I said it before, and I’ll say it again; I like Dooling.

    However, only his positives and "potential" are being mentioned. And on the flipside, only Jameer and Carlos's shortcomings are being brought up.

    Dooling has been in the league 7 years, and although he has proved to be a "pesky" defender against point guards, he hasn’t shown much else. Take a look at his career stats.

    FG% 0.407
    3P% 0.310
    RPG 1.3
    APG 1.9
    SPG 0.6
    BPG 0.1
    TO 1.14
    PPG 6.6

    There is not a single line in his stats that stand out and say he should be a starter in this league. Sure, he can defend point guards of the league. But his past 7 years, his career until now, should speak for something.

    Now if you do the same thing for Carlos and Jameer, both of them have had seasons far superior to Keyon; and their stats from top to bottom are better.

    Keyon can defend and pressure the ball, which is great. But he’s never averaged more than 2 assists per game; which is scary if he is going to be a starting point guard. And he is an average shooter at best. So unless Dooling is all the sudden going to have a breakout season after 8 years in this league, the past 7 years say he’s nothing more than a spark off the bench.

    The bottom line, Keyon is a better defender than Jameer and Carlos. But great defense is played as a team. Sure I wish Carlos was a better defender, and Jameer wasn’t on the small side. But you can pick your poison with any of these players, because each of them have their flaws.

    It’s too bad we can’t mold them all into one player; then we’d have the perfect point guard.

     
  • At 8:29 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    Ya, it's hard to pick a player out of the three, and somehow someway it is going to get into a judgement call based on personal preferences. My only point about using numbers would be to put them into the perspective of the minutes played, and whether or not the player played as a starter. As you know, not all players are microwave type.

     
  • At 11:14 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    First off (1) As we all know we dont know what we have in jameer because the system run by the previous coaching staff didnt benefit anyone on the team. (2)If jameer can improve on his assists he's got all the attributes that we would want in a point guard,even though he doesnt have great height,he's tough and doesnt get backed down,the only thing that comes to mind in a negative view about jameer is those jumpshots that rip and chauncey hit over him in the playoffs,and to his credit that had more to do with coaching than him being short,he/the team shouldnt have been in those positions within a game,if we were coached to play the right way we wouldve probably been able to beat the pistons. With that said,we know what we have in keyon as weve all watched him in miami before he got here to orlando,and if we were able to aquire a true shooting guard and a rebounding defensive minded big,thats the only way i would part with a defensive player like keyon. JR Smith is crazy athletic and can shoot the three,if you put JJ and keith together and made one player they still wouldnt be as good as smith,he's a combination of both plus athletic ability,which neither JJ or keith have a ton of. As much as i like JJ and keith,both have shortcomings,JJ's size,and keith not being able to put the ball on the floor and get to the hoop being more of a spot up shooter and defender. Basically all this means is thanks to BSH the jury is still out on jameer,and keyon is expandable because of that,if jameer has the kinda year i think he might,we wont need keyon. The magic would be stupid not to do this deal if its truely on the table,if they wait becasue something better is on the table,then i have no problem with that but this deal is a steal,two starters for two guys who will get minimal minutes for us,and now that we have two max players their (keyon and garrity) expiring contracts dont matter as much to us,next year we'll only be in the running for players that will take the MLE or VM.

     
  • At 7:05 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    The last post by OVERWADED I think is the best one yet as to why the trade should be made. Big Figure brought out a few good points too.

    Bottom line, we all like Dooling, especially on the defensive end and at the point; but like one of you guys said before, to get something you have to give up something in return.

    I think the biggest risk of the trade would be taking on the questionable attitude of Smith; but he would be seeing a lot more playing time here than on the bench in DEN watching Iverson and Melo.

     
  • At 10:02 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    If Denver is looking for expiring contracts, there is no difference between Keyon and Carlos.

    1 - Keyon as a starter with a starter's minutes would have numbers as good as Jameer, he is better suited for a fast-paced offense and a better defender. That is a starter that should not be given up.
    2 - The stability and reliability of J.J. and Keith together trumps Smith's pros which could be negated by his cons, anyways.
    3 - Evans at 6'8" is not a Darko type player. We probably could sign Foyle or Webber for less than what he may cost us.

     
  • At 3:46 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    Evans is the type of player that would rough Darko up, push him around, and get in his head.

    He's the type of player that will knock opposing team's star players to the floor if they try to take it to the basket with him down there.

    He's also that type of player that plays hard, even though he knows he's not going to get much of a chance to score.

    Plus, he can give you 10+ rebounds any given night, which he has already proven in Seattle by averaging nearly 10 a game on a successful team.

    There are not too many players like this in the league. And you can often find a player with these characteristics on most championship teams.

     

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