Orlando Magic Blog

Group Blog talking about the NBA 2009 Eastern Conference Champions. Due to the amazing success of the 2009 playoff run comments are now frequently deleted to kill offensive comments, incoherence, or asininity. Comments can no longer be anonymous and require either a Blogger or OpenID account.

Friday, January 27, 2006

Winning Streak Statistics

5 wins and a seemingly different team since Francis returned from his 2 game suspension. I downloaded and combined the box scores from the last five games and compared them against season averages. Here's what stands out.
Hedo 5 games: 41 mpg, 22.2 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.2 asst. suddenly he is underpaid. In 9 minutes more per game he is scoring 8.4 ppg more, 2 more rebounds and an extra assist.

Dwight 5 games: 39.4 mpg, 18.4 ppg, 13.4 reb. 3 ppg higher than season average and .8 more rebounds. Compare to Tim Duncan's 2nd year averages (he was 23) of 21.7 and 11.4

Steve-O 5 games: 37 minutes, 13.8 pts, 8 assists, 6.8 rebounds. Those are great numbers. During the win streak his minutes are normal, his scoring is down 2 pts a game while assists and rebounds are up 2 per game.

Backup Center/PF: There isn't one! 0 minutes from Cato/Kasun in 5 games, Garrity is doing well but plays the perimeter and Morris has played 13 minutes during the streak.

Pat G 5 games: 19 mpg, 10 ppg -- 4 mpg more, and playing much better. ppg almost double his average this year. 30 minutes vs. Philly.

Diener 5 games: 13.4 mpg, 4 ppg, 1.6 asst, 2 rpg. Has played in a total of 12 games this year including the last 5. With Dooling back Diener is getting a consistent 6 mpg off the bench.

Dooling last 2 games: 30 mpg, 14 ppg, 1.5 apg, 3 rpg in 2 huge wins.

Jameer 1st 2 games of streak: 33.5 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 5.5 apg, 3 rpg to help start the streak.

3 key guys with Hedo putting up big numbers, Dwight's continuous steady improvement and Francis with his head in the game. 2 steady role players in Stevenson & Battie. Plus the sudden emergence of a bench that has stretched from only Nelson/Garrity to add Dooling & Diener.

Questions:
  1. Does Hedo continue to start and play 40 mpg if Hill decides to return?
  2. Can Howard average 20+ ppg and 14 rpg next year?
  3. Can Francis permanently keep his head in the game, or do you have to trade him while he is playing well?
  4. Is Kasun injured or simply can't play NBA basketball? He's the only player to not leave the bench during the streak?


20 Comments:

  • At 11:05 AM, Blogger Matt said…

    Here are my answers to your questions:

    1. In my view, Hedo will share minutes with Grant almost equally but he will come off the bench.
    2. Howard can average 20 points per game, next year but his rebounds average will depend on how good or bad the team will shoot resulting in a lower or higher number of offensive rebounds.
    3. Francis’s status would depend on coach Hill’s communication skills or lack thereof.
    4. Mario Kasun is ready to play. As per wise Ottis, it was coach’s decision not to play him due to match-up issues, something that I don’t buy. It has to do a lot with Garrity’s recent shooting success which enabled the coach to gamble more on defense hoping for more offense.

     
  • At 11:38 AM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    These are my views: (1)When grant is healthy and ready to return,he should come off the bench,and there's two good reason's why:(1)Hedo's playing so well that he deserves the minutes. (2)Old Otis himself said that,we just cant keep throwing grant out there as a starter and playing him major minutes,his body is breaking down under those conditions & he isnt that young anymore,how to substitute him while keeping him warm will be a chore,20 minutes a night untill he can show he's totally healed from all nagging injuries,in a back-up role! (2) Sure dwight can average 20pts,but he wont unless he works on his outside jump shot,which will give his point total an extra few points on the average night (10-15 feet like battie),right now the scouting report says let dwight shoot,and dont let him get to the basket,he's working with limited post moves also,dribble drive right or left,jump hooks with the left and right hand & a drop step from either block! Dwights gotta start hitting that jumper off pick and role as well! (3) I think for a while steve felt alone out there on the court,and it actually carried over into this season,but right now the right poeple are getting healthy at the right time,keyon's agressiveness is rubbing off on everyone and steve is starting to see that he's got a respected,gritty player beside him in keyon,that takes more responsibility in being the teams enforcer than steve would want too,so steve kinda looks like a good guy playing with keyon,i think he likes that,and as you can see steve's game has been better than average lately! (4)And mario just wouldnt have been effective against these last few teams,char is small,pho is small,sac is small & outside of dalembert philly is small,so mario just needs to be patient his time will come,when were playing big teams game after game!

     
  • At 12:04 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    1. Hedo has really stepped up his game in January and is the Magic player of the month IMO. I'm not sure I would change a thing at the moment. I would hope at some point in his career that Hill would see the wisdom of his being brought off the bench.

    2. I believe Howard will continue to grow on the offensive boards and will surpass 14 rpg for an entire season. He is such a natural rebounder he could get to Rodman type numbers if he were to concentrate primarly on that aspect of his game. Not a bad idea, Rodman won 5 rings.

    3. After the first half of this year I no longer trust that Francis will grow up. On the other hand, there have been players like Isiah Thomas who embraced more of a team game and won titles. His breakthrough happened in career years 8-9-10. Francis is in career year 7 so it may be just around the corner if it's not happening now. There are only a handful of teams that do better than 14 pts, 8 asst and 6 rpg from their pg.

    4. Otis is clearly lying about Kasun. There have not been matchup problems for 8 straight games of DNP-CD's. Plus there have been garbage time opportunities along the way. He either can't play, or B.Hill can't stand him. I don't blame Otis for lying, he may have to include Mario in a trade either in February or this summer. So far this year he's played 128 minutes and averages a foul every 3 minutes.

     
  • At 12:08 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Timberwolves decided on ricky davis instead of steve francis,mark stein of espn just reported,b/c they felt like ricky was less of a gamble or less of a problem! Trade itself was a seven player deal that happened last night!

     
  • At 12:12 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    I can't see why they don't involve Mario. With Cato so questionable why wouldn't you at least try to develop a 7-footer who has palyed pretty good in the pre-season? Then agian, when was the last time that Magic Developed a Big post-Sahq era?

     
  • At 12:13 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    Ricky Davis less risky than Steve Francis. Ricky Davis less risky than Steve Francis. Ricky Davis less risky than Steve Francis. Ricky Davis less risky than Steve Francis. Ricky Davis less risky than Steve Francis. Ricky Davis less risky than Steve Francis. . .
    Ouch.

     
  • At 12:16 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    hhahahahahahahahahah Im LOL on that one weR !!!!!! Timberwolves were picking between neccesary evils i guess,and through a statement tried to validate their selection,as if ricky will be a model citizen now,thats funny!!

     
  • At 12:23 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    You guys are ignoring the politics of the business. They cannot disrespect the "Classy veteran" (as per Vander Weide's e-mail). They can give Grant limited minutes (20-25) but they can't bring him off the bench.

     
  • At 12:42 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    First thing first,matt how can you respect anything that vande weide says,we have two lucky lottery picks as our only consistent winning over the years,we have hired no name gm's,no name coaches,the guy has no basketball knowlegde,who cares if he says grant should play or start or whatever! There's no politics involved,and it's not disrespect,to permenantly move him to the bench,again let me say,this isnt the grant of his prime,he's 5 surgeries and 5 years removed from his great player years,why does he deserve so much respect in your opinion,what has he done to garner that respect,and is throwing an injury plagued player in the line-up just so he wont get offended/disrespected a good idea,especially when the team is playing so well without him! Listen matt,like you i like grant,but in no way is a player ever bigger than the team,and just giving him starting position,without earning it is wrong all the way around,weR said it best and i agree with him,i hope grant would see the logic in coming off the bench,and to say you cant bring grant off the bench,would be a slap in the face to steve who just did it last week,without complaining!

     
  • At 1:01 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    Let me say my last words on Grant’s issue and put it to rest, as far as I am concerned.

    1. One guy is happy to come off the bench and the other guy has never come off the bench. It is clear how to keep them both happy should that be the only parameter.
    2. You can’t judge Hedo against loosey-goosey defenses that he has played against, recently. As soon as the defense gets stronger, you will see the inconsistent side of Hedo. How many times he has taken ill-advised shots for no apparent reasons?
    3. Grant is a floor leader and smart fast-breaker. Sooner or later we have to start scoring easier or the team is going to get tired over the long haul.
    4. Whether you respect any thing that Vander Weide says or not, he has the clout over the co-GMs and the coaches. Remember his interview with the Sentinel and how full of praise he was for Grant. He even said his life is better for knowing Grant.
    5. As I understand, Grant is the only player that Steve has high respect for. It is a good policy to keep Grant happy so that he could exert his influence over Steve.

    Now, I have put in my dime, and I won’t say anything more from here on.

     
  • At 1:09 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    One other point to add. We were playing Hedo as a starter, and the team's offense was going nowhere. Remember when Grant came back first in the NY game, and then in DAL game, how much smoother the offense looked? It's wise to use this luck of the deep bench to our benefit for the long run.

     
  • At 1:41 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    Matt c'mon give the magic a little more credit against the opponents they have faced,char is the number one steals team in the league and we went in there and took care of the ball,philly has the best shot blocker in the league and we went right at him and got the win,some of those teams play good defense especially on their home floor,i think hedo deserve's alot more credit for averaging 22 pts against them! And you have to throw out the beginning of the season b/c keyon & grant were out and we were breaking in a new coach that didnt know much about his team,the recent success of hedo is more the player that he really is,i think what needs to be said and realized by all is,we dont need hedo to shoot perfect from night to night,we need him to spread the floor so that defenses dont collapse on dwight,that is more important than the occasional fast break! Your points 1 & 3 were good,but 2 was opinion,and 4 & 5 dont matter in the scheme of things,but what does matter is prolonging grant's career for the betterment of the team,and bringing him off the bench in a reserve role would probably extend his career,he'd be able to go all out for less minutes against not so good defenders,in this five game stretch hedo has been a model of consistency,and the fact that he was the leading scorer in those five wins should say something big,grant has never lead us for five straight games doing anything,and the fact that coach hill doesnt want to run that much means that grant is expendable,grant's game doesnt compliment dwight,hedo's does! Reggie Miller who started for the pacers for 15 years,bit his tongue for the betterment of the team,and came off the bench for an entire season,there's nothing wrong with it!This is my last post on grant,it seems like the magic are gonna do things a little differently this time by the article that was in the sentinel,smart move if you want him to be around,b/c physicaly his body is only gonna let him do so much!

     
  • At 1:53 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    And sure when grant came back we looked like a team that was running better but thats it,ball movement has looked unbelieveable without grant or a consistent running game,and thats b/c were playing inside out,which grant doesnt do well,if you thought that the team was better running then you dont understand coach hill,after we beat the knicks we lost the next four with grant,b/c steve,deshawn & grant all on the floor at the same time,the defenses can cheat and collapse on dwight as soon as he puts down his dribble b/c there's no one on the floor to spread the floor,hedo does that,and this recent five game winning streak proves that,in my opinion i would bring deshawn off the bench before grant,but i wouldnt take hedo out of the starting line-up,so that would mean deshawn would go to the bench and grant and hedo would start,grant could be an unbelievable two guard!

     
  • At 2:10 PM, Blogger WeRDevos said…

    The keys to great 6th men are athleticism, smarts, the ability to play at least 2 positions and a sense of teamwork ahead of the glory of starting. If your team has one it opens up all kinds of possibilities throughout the game for the coach.

    Grant Hill could be that guy if he desired. And as good as the team is currently playing they could still use the added dimension he could bring in that role. He could sit and watch for the first 5-6 minutes then come in for Hedo, Stevenson or even Battie to alter matchups in the Magic's favor.

    I'm not holding my breath because Hill is likely completely against the 6th man idea. But I would love to see the Magic try it for 2 or 3 weeks while Grant gets his conditioning and timing back to NBA levels.

     
  • At 2:17 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    I second that notion!

     
  • At 2:23 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    2 comments: GHill is the ultimate team player and won't create any problems no matter if he comes off the bench or starts. When he does come back, he should come off the bench for several games at first to prove that he can play 20-30 minutes a game and not feel pain later. Once he can do that, maybe I would think about starting him. Hedo has done so well starting, and like has been said he can really spread the opposing defense with his outside shooting. Interesting idea by Big Figure to start GHill at the 2 guard and have Stevenson come off the bench.
    Francis seems to be buying into the true pt guard philosophy: to pass first instead of looking for shots... 15 assists against Philly, a career high! I'm sure Coach Hill communicated this to him about passing more, and Francis seems to be buying into it... a good sign for the Magic. On ESPN's SportsCenter last night, NBA analyst Greg Anthony said that in his opinion, Francis has been the most disappointing player in the NBA this year. 2 weeks ago that would have been true, but wake up Greg, and look at the outstanding team basketball Francis has played the last 5 games!

     
  • At 2:54 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    I don't know how could anyone question the fact that the last 3 teams that we played against offer some of the worst defenders in the league based on the points that they allow:

    PHI: 102.4
    PHO: 100.4
    SAC: 100.2

     
  • At 9:02 AM, Blogger Ken said…

    I unfortunately have missed seeing the last 3 games because of work. However, I've tried keeping up with what has been happening with the Magic.

    I'm probably the only one who, at this moment, is not in any hurry to see GHill come back into service. As much as I like seeing him start, and Turkglu comming off the bench (keeping them both happy) I'm just afraid of it messing with the already fragile team chemisty.

    Its hard for me to get excited about any kind of GHill comeback,anymore. I guess the last 4 years have soured me somewhat on him. With every drive to the basket he makes, or is knocked down, i wonder if he is going to get back up.

    As far as SFrancis goes.... It hasn't been that long since his suspension. Sure he's playing well for the moment, but can he sustain this for the remainder of the season???? His history proves otherwise.... I guess we just wait and see...

     
  • At 9:04 AM, Blogger Ken said…

    One final thought.....

    Remember: Paragraphs are our friends......

     
  • At 1:52 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    The Magic finally seem to be doing the right thing regarding GHilll. According to the Sentinel, Hill is basically pain-free in his groin area, but they are letting him sit an additional 7-10 days to make sure that when he starts playing again he won't keep having to sit out games because of soreness.

     

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