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Friday, July 20, 2007

Magic Math- A fun way to determine Orlando’s record for next season

By Brendan Sonnone

The off-season is far from over, and there might be a handful of moves that the Magic will still make, but that hasn’t stopped people from making predictions on how Orlando will perform next season. Some fans are saying the Magic will be a top team in the East, others are thinking that there will be little improvement, and then there are those that think Orlando can possibly be worse.



Here is a little Magic Maththat can possibly help individuals determine Orlando’s outcome, based on their own opinions. First you need to take all variables into account. Do you think the signing of Rashard Lewis will offset the losses of Grant Hill and Darko Milicic? Will Stan Van Gundy be better than Brian Hill…ect. This simple addition/subtraction formula will be a great way to decide how much Orlando will improve (or digress) this year due to the busy off-season. Get your calculator ready for Magic Math because here we go…


Start off with taking the sum of Orlando’s total wins last year, which was 40.


Determine how much better you think Stan Van Gundy will be than Brian Hill. If you think he will be a tremendous improvement, add 4 to the win column (thus getting 44). If you think he will better the team a reasonable amount, add 3; and if you think he will offer just a slight improvement over Hill, add 1. If you feel that Brian Hill was a significantly better coach than Van Gundy (you might be on drugs, just kidding, but not really) subtract 4. If you feel Hill was fairly better, subtract 3, and if you think Hill was just above Van Gundy, subtract 1. Of course, if you think there is no difference, just keep the score at 40. MY SCORE: +4…Van Gundy is a great coach, and will get the best out of his players, offensively and defensively.


Next, consider how much you think the addition of Lewis will help out the team. If you are under the impression that he will be turn into an NBA All-First Team player, add 4. If you think he will be an all-star or make those around him all-stars, add 3. If you think he will get his 20 points and be a good #2 option add 2, and if you get the notion that he will help out a little offensively, add 1. If you think he will ruin the chemistry of the team, subtract 4. If you think that Darko and Grant Hill were better than his presence subtract 3 or 2 depending on how strongly you feel. If you think he will slightly take away from Howard and other players, subtract 1. No difference, add or subtract nothing.MY SCORE: +3… Lewis will improve the team. While he might not increase his numbers that much, he will make those around him better with his presence alone.


Now, ask yourself if you think Orlando will be able to add another big man (or men) to the roster. If they land a 10 and 10 guy, add 3. If you think the team can land a tough player like Eaton Thomas and if you feel Martin Gortat develops into 8,8,2 guy, add 2. Several aging veterans like P.J Brown, add 1 or 0, your liking. If you think the team adds an untested player or just one 38+ year old, subtract 1. If you think they stick with just Gortat, take away 2, and if you think the Magic stands pat, subtract 4. MY SCORE: -1…While Gortat might be useful coming off the bench, he isn’t ready to start. A guy like P.J Brown or Antonio Davis would be nice as well, but their age would be a concern. Someone of that caliber is likely what the Magic will get.


Orlando had one of the youngest teams in the league last year. Will the year of experience (including playoffs) help improve the play of youngsters like Howard, Jameer Nelson, Trevor Ariza and J.J Redick drastically? If you think so, add 3. If you think each player will be slightly improved, add 2. If you think that year will make little difference, especially for guys like Redick who received limited playing time, keep the score at 0. If you think that the more pressure that is applied to the youngsters will make them worse or under perform, subtract 1-3, your choice. MY SCORE: +2… A guy like Nelson may never get better, but a year of experience will certainly help all of the young members of this Magic squad.


O.K, we’ve covered Orlando. Now let’s concentrate on the team’s main opponents. If you are under the impression that several playoff teams like Miami and New Jersey will be worse this season, add 3 to Orlando’s score. If you think that a few of the higher seeds will fall off and not too many non-playoff teams will sneak up on Orlando, add 1-2. If you think that things will remain the same, add 0. If the Eastern Conference seems to be much improved, subtract 3-4. If there are several teams, ahead of and below the Magic last year that look better, subtract 1-2. MY SCORE: +2… Miami is getting older and Wade won’t be relied on until later in the year. New Jersey is getting up there in age as well, and same with Detroit. However a healthy Wizards team, an improved Charlotte and Boston squad and a Chicago team that looks prime, things won’t come too easy.


With everything I have taken into account, my predicted win total for Orlando next season is…(drum roll)…50. That is pretty much what I thought Orlando would get this upcoming season, maybe a little bit better than I expected, so the formula seems to work. Will Magic Math help you get a hold on this team?

9 Comments:

  • At 5:37 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    40+4+3+1+3+2=53

    I was bored; and as off as this "formula" could be, it was reasonable and interesting.

     
  • At 6:04 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    If anyone cares to know; Travis Diener signed a 3 year deal with the Pacers.

    And speaking of ex-Magic players; Steve-o rejoined the Houston Rockets. That's a weird one to think about...

     
  • At 10:02 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    One may have fun with this, but it is a very primitive way when variables are gauged individually. In a more accurate model, one should look for covariances amongst variables involving two or more of individual variables.

    As for Steve Francis, he would be rejuvenated joining Houston. He was not a model citizen and had a few rocky seasons in Houston, but nobody called him impossible to work with, definitely not John Weisbrod who traded for him with a lot of hope. Brian Hill ruined the guy's life with his pigheadedness in one short year, and I still believe that he didn't deserve it.

     
  • At 12:35 PM, Blogger Big Figure said…

    A ten game improvement is very possible,now that doesnt mean i agree with this system to come up with that total. In my view BSH should have guided this team to 50 wins before the improvements and subtractions,so 50 wins is about what i expect just because of the fact that we have a coach with a clue. Also i saw that travis had signed and forgot to mention it the other day,good luck to travis with his new team. And why in the world would steve want to play with ball hog T-mac rather than playing in L.A. with cuttino his best friend,who cares if you have a house in houston,you wont ever see the ball with t-mac and Yoa.

     
  • At 2:46 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    He has always loved Houston, almost as much as his "boy" Cuttino. Maybe the combination of it being his home, the only franchise where he was all-star, and he thinks they can contend; where obviously that isn't an option on the Clippers.

    He did have a 180 in these last 2 seasons with his career. However, Brian Hill was the coach who started it. He then ended up with Larry Brown who had already lost control in NY, and he's never been the same since.

    I think he'll have a solid year in Houston.

    But this is one of those situations that piss me off. Player get big contract, doesn't live up to the contract for whatever reason, gets bought out, and gets to play wherever he wants while still getting a ton of money.

     
  • At 2:47 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    As for Travis, he's actually suppose to have the back up point guard position. I'll be interested to see how he does actually getting regular playing time.

     
  • At 8:57 PM, Blogger Matt said…

    I am sorry that I am not as comfortable with predicting a 10 game improvement. I think that the loss of Darko and Grant may just be a wash with the arrival of Rashrad at best, in my view. The addition of Stan Van Gundy could definitely be considered as a huge upgrade, but how many extra games would it be translated into, is hard to say. We also should take into account the fact that, early last year, we blindsided a few teams resulting in winning a few close games. Building a good model to account for all these variables will take time. My gut feeling tells me that the improvement may be in the range of 3-5 games, and that depends greatly on how successful Stan is in covering up our deficiency on the front-line.

     
  • At 4:52 PM, Blogger OVERWADED said…

    I tend to agree more with BIG. I thought the Magic should have been a 50 win team last year. And as premature as it still is right now, I think they'll be one this year. Here are my reasons why:

    Brian Hill was AWFUL.

    Trevor Ariza was out injured for a while, and under used when he wasn’t.

    J.J. Redick didn’t play.

    As much potential as Darko has, Hill used him as nothing more than a bench player.

    Hedo and Jameer have shown they can play better, and they will under Van Gundy.

    Dwight and Rashard will be one of the best 1, 2 punches in the NBA.

    The departure of Grant Hill will make the team better. He was always in and out of the lineup. He didn’t compliment Dwight’s game at all, because he didn’t spread the floor. He was being played out of position. He could score from time to time; but the passing (2 apg), rebounding (3rpg), and defense he used to play was all but gone. He used to drop triple doubles as much as J Kidd. How many did he have in 7 seasons with the Magic? It was time to move on from that era.

    The only thing I’ll miss from last year is Darko. But as far as
    next seasons "predictions" go; they don’t have to replace what Darko "could be", just what he was here, a bench player; and we have Brian Hill to thank for that.

    With that said, if the Magic still had Darko going into next season, I’d pick them to win the East. But since that’s not the case, I don’t think that’ll happen; however, I think they’ll make some noise.

     
  • At 3:56 PM, Blogger Mike from Illinois said…

    I'm sticking with my original prediction... the Magic will win between 47-50 games this season.

    The biggest positive from losing Grant is that J.J. Redick and Trevor Ariza will get much more playing time and we should really see the both of them emerge this season.

    The addition of Rashard Lewis will help everyone also because he will command a lot of attention from opposing defenses.

     

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